Making babies for Japan

           I'm an attractive fertile women. The Prime minister wants me to have a baby. He and I know that the greatest threat to Japan's future, apart from Global Warming, is the current de-population of the country. In thirty years, when I am only 50 years old, the ratio of old people to young people will be such that Japan's society will collapse. Today the same old men who have run the country for an eternity are telling me what to do with my body. Other than the "un-cooperative attitude of women" they are suggesting the only barrier is money, when in fact, women in Japan have many reasons for delaying child birth, or having none at all.

           With the end of World War Two millions of husbands and fathers returned from the front line to be reunited with their families. This lead to huge increase in the nations birthrate, a period considered to be the first baby boom. This surge lasted from 1945 to 1949, and the generation who were born in that era are called “Dankai no sedai”. People celebrated the population growth and embraced hope for successful enriched Japanese future. 50 years latter however, Japanese families are now facing serious problems, and the birth rate has been in decline since 1982. This article reviews why we have this problem, the social and economic effects of the declining birth rate, and finally present solutions for the future. 

 

            One of the main causes of this problem has been attributed to a high cost of raising children in Japanese modern family. Writing in The Japanese Family System in Transition, Emiko Ochika explained that children were used as “producer goods” in agricultural societies. They helped the family and supported family farms. However with Japan’s industrialization starting with the Meiji and accelerating post 1945, predominately children had nothing to do but consume their parents’ savings (45). She clearly states that “in an economic sense, children became costs and not gains” (46). Nowadays it is normal for a middle- class child to go to University. According to a survey of the expense of bringing up a child from ministry of Health and welfare, if a child goes to public school from elementary school to University, it would cost about 120,000 Australian dollars; however if he goes to private school to junior high school until University and only go to public elementary school, the cost will be jump to 190,000 Australian dollars (online). Understandably couples to prefer having 2 children rather than 3 or 4 for economic reasons.

            If the birth rate continues to decline at its present rate, there will be several implications that Japanese society will need to confront. First of all, the economic burden posed by aging generations. Professor Asao Yoshifumi, argues that the present national pension plan’s huge dependence on increases in the birth rate is unsustainable, and retirement payments pensioners receive is now getting comparatively smaller and smaller. He also states an in increases in birth rate would be a miracle but that pension outlays will stay the same (3). This implies that a declining working population will not be able to support the retired population and to maintain present living standards. Therefore for the current generation of women who are being asked to lay down their careers for the sake of the country, the reality is their children may be nothing more than tax slaves or repaying debt created by people who are dying or dead. What kind of life will this be? Am I inclined to provide one child for this system, two, three or four?

The employed will have to pay more tax than before for aged medical care and nursing care. To quote from Shrinking-Population Economics, “Demographers characterize societies where people older than 65 constitute more than 7% of the population as aging societies, and they refer to societies where the over-65 percentage is greater than 14% as aged societies. In 2005, the younger age population amounted to 17.40 million, accounting for 13.6 percent of the total population, the lowest level on record since the Population Census began. The working-age population (15-64 years) totaled 83.37 million, continuing its decline from the year before.

The over 65 component of Japan’s population reached 7% in 1970 and 14% in 1994” (Mastutani 1). Furthermore, referring to Perfectly Japanese, officially Japan predicts that the over-65 will occupy more than a quarter of the population in 2020 (White 169). If this nightmare comes true, there will be numerous demands for extra-familial care systems such as nursing home and home healers which will increase social security spending. In the same book, the author warns that 16 % of the national income and 12 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) was spent for Social expenditures in1993. In 2025, 27% of the GDP will be consumed for social security budget. (white 178).

            Another problem of the decreasing population and especially the working-age population is the shrinking Japanese economy. Writing in Shrinking-Population Economics, Akihiro Matsutani explained that we measure the size of on country’s economy by GDP (10) and crucially, “the size of a nation’s GDP ultimately depends heavily on the size of the nation’s workforce.” (12). He also argues Japanese population will be 108 million in 2030 which is 14% (about 14million) reduction compared to 2000. In addition by 2050, there will be an approximate 40million decrease in population in a half-century (Matsutani 8).Thus forcing the Japanese economy to a recession. In addition, the author is concerned that “the workforce is about to shrink more rapidly in Japan than in any other large industrialized nation…it will leave Japan with the lowest economic growth rate among the large industrialized nations.” (Mastutani 15). If this population decrease continues, not only will Japan suffer from economic recession but will also fall behind the rest of the world.

            Creating a more comfortable society for pregnant women and also building a good relationship with the aging society are the key future challenges. The Japanese Economy Times shows in a recent survey, 78% of married couples answered the most effective prevention of a further decrease in birth rate was maintaining communities with sufficient facilities for women who would like to have a baby (Times No.2810). For example, Childcare service, Economic support for bringing up a child, and enrichment of working conditions for women are considerable solutions. The period of women as a mother, a wife, and a housekeeper is over. We can not stop women from working for themselves and making their own life. Therefore, we need to change the society to create an enriched Japanese future again. Furthermore, since the present birth rate will remain low for the foreseeable future an aging society in inevitable. As we have seen, there are various problems that we are going to encounter; however, elderly people can be part of the solution. As Mary White points out in her book, “Now, grandmothers are in service to the younger generation, not the opposite. Parents and parents-in-low act as babysitters for 70 percent of working women (160). Japanese families should not be preoccupied only with disadvantages but see positive sides to go through the future together.

            As a women I can understand the decreasing birth rate is the major problem that Japan will encounter. I've shown in this article that the high cost of the education system contributes to this problem and now Japan is facing critical issues such as increasing financial pain of the working population and economic recession. But what do you want me to do Mr. Prime Minister? I'm only one woman! And, do you really expect me to have children just to pay for older peoples' care with their taxes? To avoid the worst situation, the community needs to be changed and moreover, people should not only be concerned about the negative aspects but also find advantaged to overcome this problem as a family.  As a woman, I would like to take this issue seriously and rethink what can I do and should I do for the future of Japan. I'll try my best.

Yuko I.

©tokyonodoko.com2007

April 2007.

Bibliography:

Ochiai Ekimo. The Japanese family system in transition : a sociological analysis of
family change in postwar Japan. Tokyo : LTCB International Library
foundation, 1997.

Matsutani Akihiko. Shrinking-population economics : lessons from Japan. Tokyo :
International House of Japan; 2006.

Merry Isaacs White. Perfectly Japanese : making families in an era of upheaval.
Berkeley, Calif. : University of California Press, c2002.

Internet:
Asou Yoshifumi, “The effect of declining birth rate”, Ministry of Finance Institute of Fiscal and Momentary Policy Financial Review Oct. 1998. http://www.mof.go.jp/f-review/r47/r_47_154_172.pdf (12 Apr. 2007)

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare,” Document about issue of declining birthrate”
Feb.2007. http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2005/02/dl/s0201-3d.pdf (12 Apr. 2007)

Japanese Economy Times, “Survey of declining birth rate” 20 Apr. 2006.

http://www.keidanren.or.jp/japanese/journal/times/2006/0420/07.html (12 Apr.